MLB Predictions – The National League
April 2, 2016
So the boss here is a huge baseball fan. Each year, he has emailed his friends his annual predictions for the upcoming MLB season. Then last year, Latino Sports Talk listed his annual predictions. Readers liked it.
This year, the predictions have moved to Dahday’s blog! Along with the predictions we have provided info on some suggestions on series or games to see live.
We will start with the National League.Will the New York Mets repeat as NL East champs? Are the Phillies really, REALLY bad or just bad? Read up and she what Michael Collazo thinks. Click here for his AL and postseason predictions.
Enjoy!
NL East | NL Central | NL West
NL East:
The Nationals: Last year, absolutely everything that could go wrong went wrong. The team’s 2014 MVP Anthony Rendon played just 80 games. Jayson Werth got hurt. They rarely played all year with their full lineup. Then we know there was something about that clubhouse… the team literally choked! But despite all that, they were an above .500 team and the Mets essentially played well for five weeks to win the division. New manager Dusty Baker ain’t afraid of no teammate beef – he coached Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent! If this lineup stays generally healthy, it’s clearly the best in the division – Ben Revere and young stud Michael Taylor, 2015 playoff legend Daniel Murphy, 2015 NL MVP Bryce Harper, a potentially healthier Ryan Zimmerman, Werth and Rendon – and their starting staff may not be that distant from the Mets. Think about it! Stephen Strasburg and Matt Scherzer can certainly match up with Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. That’s even up. As excited as Mets fans are about Steven Matz, Nats fans are looking forward to Lucas Giolito and/or Joe Ross breaking out this year. So the difference might only be Noah Syndergaard over Gio Gonzalez or Tanner Roark. As much as Paps is not a pleasant interview, he’s a pleasant closer. Their bullpen has enough arms to hold up. So it’s a close race but the Nats can prevail.
The Kings of Queens: Indeed, I am a hater and admittedly this team should be better than last year’s club but I see this more the Nats regaining their just position on top than the Mets taking a step back. The Yeonis Cespedes re-signing was huge. No doubt. Those car payments though…
I think Michael Conforto can provide good at-bats and some consistent production. I’m thinking he may cancel out losing Daniel Murphy as a best case scenario. I like Neil Walker, too. But this lineup still strikes out a lot. Is David Wright going to play 75 games? 100 games? That means Wilmer Flores plays over there as much as him. Astrubal Cabrera is not the best starting player at this point. Plus, as good as their starters can be, young arms can turn inconsistent. Bullpens can too. The Mets pitchers have to dominate for this club to be an elite club. If they just pitch as well as D.C. – which means they are a top 10 club on the mound – it falls them short of the playoffs. Those six games vs. D.C. in September will loom large.
The Fish: I don’t think this team is miserable but the top two teams are going to be tough to challenge. The Marlins organization moved in the fences basically for Giancarlo Stanton. But don’t worry, the Clevelander in left field stays unaffected! Dee Gordon is a sparkplug. Watch Christian Yelich have the breakout year he was supposed to have in 2015. The season’s hopes really revolve around Jose Fernandez and Wei-Yin Chen. If that duo can pitch 360-400 innings between them and keep them in a lot of games, the Fish would have a shot at a winning record. Otherwise, it’s going to be better but nothing that keeps things interesting into August and September.
The Fightins: If you bet over/unders for winning records, take the over on the Phillies this year. It’s not about how good they will be in May and June – it’s about how good they will look in August and September. Maikel Franco is a beast! Think a young Adrian Beltre without the super-superior glove, though he is above average over at third base. He has tremendous bat speed, confidence – and even now, an Instagram account! Odubel Herrera keeps adjusting and keeps hitting. No reason to think he suffers from a sophomore slump. Aaron Nola will throw strikes. The bullpen…who knows. Dalier Hinojosa? Jeanmar Gomez? My cousin, Javier? But in August, Freddy Galvis will give way to uber prospect J.P. Crawford; Peter Bourjos will give way to Nick Williams; Charlie Morton will give way to Jake Thompson. That August and September record will be a 4 to 8 games over .500 and push the big boys in the division. The Phillies are doing the right things. By 2018, they will be back competing for the top of the league.
The Bravos: Their top prospects supposedly are starting pitchers. As they move into a new ballpark that will help. Buy right now I see Julio Teheran and other guys. Their lineup is horrible – Freddie Freeman and backups on many American League teams. All those arms should pay off but I don’t think they pay up early dividends and prevent Atlanta from avoiding the basement.
The Cubbies: This club is so talented at all positions. Signing Jason Heyward and bringing back Dexter Fowler adds on to all that young power like Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Anthony Rizzo. Jorge Soler and Javier Baez would start for half the teams in the NL yet may not get 500 at bats between them this year. Defensively they are going to be excellent. The main concern for the Northsiders would be Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. What if his dip in velocity late last year is his new normal? Would Jon Lester, at age 32 and after all those post-seasons, start seeing tread on the tires? Still, the Cubs have young pieces they could move for a starter in July if they feel they are one arm away.
The Buccos: The Pittsburgh Pirates might be the Oklahoma City Thunder of baseball. As talented as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have been, the presumed inevitable championship for this duo remains elusive. What if OKC had kept James Harden? Would things be different? In Pittsburgh’s case, if they never advance in the post-season or win a World Series, fans would wonder what if they didn’t run into the elite Cardinals in a division race and a hot Jake Arrieta in 2015? What if they had found a way to win one of these one-and-done playoff games? The good news is, this team still has a shot. Their position depth rivals the Cubs starting with Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen and Gregory Polanco in the outfield.
Jung Ho Kang’s injury hurts this club early in the season. Gerrit Cole and Mark Melancon serve as an elite ace starter-closer combination. The Pirates always seem to get career years from starters given up by other teams. Maybe Jeff Locke is its 2016 example. The Buccos could win the World Series or fail to reach the playoffs. As good as they are, this division makes it tough to catch a break.
The Cards: I am a Cardinals hater but they always figure things out. Who cares if Jason Heyward signs with the historic rival? So what if Jhonny Peralta is out until June or July with injuries? This club won 100 games in 2015 even as its best starter Adam Wainwright got hurt for the year! Unbelievable. This year, we will see. Wainwright is back. Yadier Molina returns too. Are either the same elite player? Outfielders Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty hold the keys this season. If these two produce as last year’s smaller sample sizes indicated, St. Louis will compete with a solid lineup of grind-it-out hitters. But without an above average performance from these two or guys like Kolten Wong or Tommy Pham – as well as get production from the older stars – then this club may even fail to reach the post-season. Or they win 100 games again.
The Brew Crew: The bottom of this division figured out they need to rebuild. Milwaukee will compete with the Reds for that top pick in the 2017 MLB Amateur Draft. Jonathan Lucroy’s days with the club are probably numbered. If Milwaukee could find a team that would take Ryan Braun’s contract he would be gone too. I like former Phillies minor leaguer Domingo Santana as a young player to watch. Otherwise, the starting 9 is below average at almost all positions. Their pitching is potentially awful. Jimmy Nelson is a starter the organization hopes becomes a building block. Expect a 65-70 win team here.
Reds: See Brewers entry. They pushed the reset button too late so now they need to find a taker for Joey Votto.As much buzz as Billy Hamilton gets for his base stealing, he doesn’t hit enough. The team would love to see Devin Mesoraco bounce back from an injury-plagued 2015 season. Their Opening Day starter is going to be Raisel Iglesias. So there you go. Cincy may have the worst team in baseball this year.
Los Doyers: L.A. still can win this division. I know it’s not the sexy pick. Andrew Friedman and the front office have stepped away from signing their way out of problems and instead will run with the young prospects and pitchers they have and go from there. Of course, signing Zach Greinke and keeping him away from a division rival would have been nice. But with Clayton Kershaw still on top, with Kenta Maeda — who looked in spring training — filling in behind him and with more depth from Scott Kazmir, Alex Wood and eventually Hyun-Jin Ryu, this rotation overall could be stronger. Plus, mega-prospect Julio Urias is only 19 but is so good we might see him with the big club this year. Offensively, teams would kill for one high-ceiling offensive player 25 years old or younger. The Dodgers have three – Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson and Corey Seager. As much fanfare as Puig gets, he has yet to drive in 70 or more runs; he has yet to hit 20 homeruns in a season. Wouldn’t this happen soon? Will it ever? If it happens, there’s a good chance he puts it together this year under new manager Dave Roberts. This division seems stronger but in the end, L.A.’s higher ceiling and financial resources get them in the playoffs.
Los Gigantes: It’s an even year! That can only mean one thing…not so fast. This rotation could be excellent for sure – Madison Bumgarner Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Matt Cain, Jake Peavy and even Chris Heston, who threw a no-hitter last year. But this rotation in fact has question marks. Cueto was awesome the first half and not awesome the second half of 2015. Is San Fran getting the Cubs version or White Sox version of Samardzija? Cain and Peavy are veterans past their prime. They may be done. So this could be a very good rotation or one that doesn’t dominate beyond MadBum. Its lineup has solid balance but not tons of power, which is a premium in today’s game. The Giants will be contenders but maybe not division winners.
D-Backs:
Boy, do Phoenix baseball fans wish that A.J. Pollock injury was an April Fool’s joke. Tony LaRussa, Dave Stewart and company traded some of their best minor league talent to win the NL West this year. Now they got Zach Greinke and Shelby Miller along with Patrick Corbin and Robbie Ray in the rotation. Paul Goldschmidt is a beast! But despite the moves, Jean Segura and Nick Ahmed don’t scare pitchers. Yosmany Tomas has yet to show power. And now with Pollock out, gambling for now may remind fans of the 2014-15 San Diego Padres off-season. I would be surprised if the D-Backs won 82-84 games at this point.
CAH-lo-RAY-doh: The Rocky Mountain air just makes it tough to get the pitching right. Jeff Bridich has a tough gig. Nolan Arenado is an MVP-level player. The outfield of Gerardo Parra, Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez is quite good. But can the rotation led by Jorge De La Rosa — and hopefully for Rockies fans, Jon Gray — keep them in any games? It doesn’t help Jose Reyes has a cloud over his personal life. And that’s not to mention his curious reggaeton career.
The Friars: This organization is recovering from acting like the D-Backs did this past offseason. Sometimes, going for it prematurely can really mess things up. San Diego ironically might even pass Arizona on the leaderboard. For some reason, both Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner under-performed last year. Maybe they are both due bounce-back seasons. No one is afraid of this lineup – Melvin Upton, Jr., an aging Matt Kemp, Cory “Spragga Benz” Spangenberg and the rest – and none of their position players are really gold glove caliber defensively. Expect a 70-74 win season in The Plymouth of the West. Cue Ron Burgundy.
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